June 2026 analysis

EU's two largest restaurant and accommodation index rises coincide with falling June tourist nights

Romania and Cyprus recorded the EU27's two largest June 2026 changes in the restaurants and accommodation services price index, at +11.02% and +8.48% year on year. In both countries, tourist accommodation nights fell over the same period — -5.66% in Romania and -6.78% in Cyprus. Across the other 25 EU countries the picture is mixed, and this analysis describes how the two measures sit together rather than claiming that one moves the other.

Published: 10 September 2026
Reference period: June 2026 vs June 2025
Price data retrieved: 2026-09-05
Tourism data retrieved: 2026-09-09

How to read the numbers. The price measure is Eurostat's harmonised index for restaurants and accommodation services (COICOP CP11) — an index of price change, not hotel prices, travel costs or a price level. Index changes use this project's logarithmic year-on-year convention; tourist nights use ordinary percentage growth, so the two are not the same kind of percentage. Nights count accommodation nights, not unique visitors. Non-resident means the guest lives outside the reporting country; it is residence, not nationality.

Three key findings

Finding 1
Romania and Cyprus lead the index change while nights fall
Ranked 1st and 2nd of 27 on June index change, with accommodation nights at -5.66% and -6.78% respectively.
Finding 2
Nights grew on both sides of the EU27 median
Lithuania recorded +12.67% nights with index rank 5, while Malta recorded +8.54% with index rank 22.
Finding 3
Resident and non-resident nights can move in opposite directions
Romania recorded +12.06% non-resident nights alongside -9.38% resident nights; Malta recorded +9.62% and -15.21%.

The EU27 in one chart

The horizontal axis is the June index change for restaurants and accommodation services; the vertical axis is accommodation-nights growth over the same month a year earlier.

Each point is one EU country in June 2026. Hollow, dashed markers show countries whose tourism inputs carry a Eurostat low-reliability flag (Belgium and Ireland). The Netherlands sits exactly on the median line and Slovakia exactly on the zero line, so neither is counted above or below. No trend line is drawn: the plot describes how the two measures sit together, not how one affects the other.

What the EU27 picture shows

Of the 27 EU countries, 11 recorded higher accommodation nights in June 2026 than in June 2025, 15 recorded fewer, and 1 — Slovakia — recorded exactly no change. The EU27 median index change was +4.40%, calculated with equal country weights; it is not an official EU aggregate.

Splitting the countries strictly by that median and by the zero line gives 5 countries above the median with rising nights, 7 above the median with falling nights, 6 below the median with rising nights and 7 below the median with falling nights. The Netherlands sits exactly at the median and is reported separately rather than being placed above or below it; Slovakia sits exactly at zero growth and is neither increasing nor declining.

Across all 27 countries the cross-sectional association between the two measures is weak: Pearson r is -0.15 and Spearman's rho is -0.07. These are descriptive summaries of how 27 country values sit together in a single month. They are not causal estimates, and they do not show that price-index changes explain, predict or produce changes in tourism anywhere in Europe.

Romania: the largest index change

June index change: +11.02% (rank 1)
June nights: -5.66% (rank 21)
H1 nights: -6.71%
Non-resident nights: +12.06%
Resident nights: -9.38%
Non-resident share: 20.56%

Romania recorded the EU27's largest June change in the restaurants and accommodation services index, at +11.02%. At the same time, total accommodation nights fell -5.66%, the 21st position of 27. The two residence segments moved in opposite directions: non-resident nights rose +12.06% while resident nights fell -9.38%. Non-residents account for 20.56% of Romania's June nights, so the smaller segment grew while the larger one declined.

Cyprus: the second-largest index change

June index change: +8.48% (rank 2)
June nights: -6.78% (rank 23)
H1 nights: -7.71%
Non-resident nights: -6.04%
Resident nights: -19.16%
Non-resident share: 95.06%

Cyprus recorded the second-largest June index change at +8.48%, alongside a -6.78% change in accommodation nights — the largest June decline among the countries sitting strictly above the EU27 median index change. Over the first half of 2026, Cyprus recorded -7.71% nights, the largest H1 total-nights decline in the EU27. Both residence segments fell: non-resident nights -6.04% and resident nights -19.16%, with non-residents making up 95.06% of June nights.

Four contrasting cases

Netherlands
Index change +4.40% — exactly the EU27 median, so the Netherlands is not classified above or below it. June nights fell -13.06%, the largest June decline in the EU27, while H1 nights were -1.50%.
Lithuania
The EU27's largest June nights increase at +12.67%, with an index change of +5.76% (rank 5). Over the first half of the year, nights were -1.19%, so the June figure does not describe the half-year as a whole.
Malta
Index change +2.99% (rank 22) alongside +8.54% June nights and +9.91% over H1 — growth recorded with a below-median index change.
Sweden
One of the smallest index changes in the EU27 at +2.64% (rank 25), with June nights +3.75% and H1 nights +1.47%.

Two further boundary cases are worth stating plainly. Slovakia recorded exactly 0.00% nights growth, so it is described as unchanged rather than rising or falling. Estonia recorded a negative index change of -2.30%, the only one in the EU27 in this month, alongside +1.89% nights.

Non-resident versus resident nights

Eurostat splits accommodation nights by the guest's country of residence, not nationality. Each segment is measured against its own year-earlier value, so the two percentages describe different bases and are never added together.

Romania
Non-resident nights
+12.06%
Resident nights
-9.38%
Non-resident share of June nights
20.6%
Malta
Non-resident nights
+9.62%
Resident nights
-15.21%
Non-resident share of June nights
96.6%
Croatia
Non-resident nights
-7.52%
Resident nights
+11.62%
Non-resident share of June nights
91.1%

Romania and Malta both recorded rising non-resident nights alongside falling resident nights. Croatia shows the reverse combination: non-resident nights -7.52% with resident nights +11.62%, on a non-resident share of 91.1%.

June alongside the first half of 2026

The half-year figure covers January to June 2026 against the same six months of 2025. It includes June, so the two columns below are overlapping views of the same year, not consecutive periods.

June 2026 and January–June 2026 accommodation-nights growth for the six focus countries
Country	June nights	H1 nights
Romania	-5.66%	-6.71%
Cyprus	-6.78%	-7.71%
Netherlands	-13.06%	-1.50%
Lithuania	+12.67%	-1.19%
Malta	+8.54%	+9.91%
Sweden	+3.75%	+1.47%

Only part of the June pattern appears over the half-year. Romania and Cyprus recorded declines in both views, and Malta and Sweden recorded increases in both. The Netherlands and Lithuania differ: Lithuania's leading June increase sits alongside -1.19% over H1.

All 27 EU countries

Ordered by June index-change rank. Index changes are logarithmic year-on-year changes; nights figures are ordinary percentage growth.

EU27 countries: June 2026 restaurants and accommodation services index change, accommodation nights growth, first-half nights growth and the residence split, ordered by index-change rank.
Country	June index change	Index rank	June nights	Nights rank	H1 nights	Non-resident nights	Resident nights	Non-resident share	Data qualification
Romania	+11.02%	1	-5.66%	21	-6.71%	+12.06%	-9.38%	20.6%	—
Cyprus	+8.48%	2	-6.78%	23	-7.71%	-6.04%	-19.16%	95.1%	—
Bulgaria	+7.60%	3	-3.63%	19	-1.68%	-5.42%	+0.30%	67.3%	—
Greece	+6.16%	4	+1.44%	9	+1.40%	+1.72%	-0.87%	89.5%	—
Lithuania	+5.76%	5	+12.67%	1	-1.19%	+14.50%	+11.31%	43.3%	—
Denmark	+5.57%	6	-1.58%	15	+3.75%	+3.89%	-5.49%	44.0%	—
Hungary	+5.44%	7	+1.93%	5	+3.70%	+5.30%	-0.94%	47.4%	—
Spain	+5.14%	8	-1.42%	14	+1.55%	-2.61%	+0.70%	63.3%	—
Latvia	+4.89%	9	+1.84%	7	-1.09%	+0.76%	+3.49%	60.0%	—
Croatia	+4.76%	10	-6.08%	22	+0.46%	-7.52%	+11.62%	91.1%	—
Czechia	+4.58%	11	-0.83%	13	+2.51%	-1.92%	0.00%	42.5%	—
Slovakia	+4.57%	12	0.00%	12	+5.86%	0.00%	0.00%	34.8%	—
Portugal	+4.43%	13	+0.21%	11	+0.92%	-1.31%	+3.47%	67.1%	—
Netherlands	+4.40%	14	-13.06%	27	-1.50%	-12.04%	-13.79%	42.0%	—
Poland	+4.33%	15	+3.98%	3	+5.18%	+1.07%	+4.61%	17.4%	—
Slovenia	+3.92%	16	+1.54%	8	+5.66%	+1.53%	+1.57%	77.3%	—
Austria	+3.73%	17	-4.12%	20	+1.83%	-5.41%	-1.37%	67.2%	—
Luxembourg	+3.72%	18	-6.93%	24	-1.18%	-5.58%	-16.21%	88.6%	—
Belgium	+3.60%	19	-9.63%	25	-1.35%	-11.46%	-7.54%	52.2%	Low reliability (u)
Ireland	+3.56%	20	-9.87%	26	+14.59%	+5.26%	-33.72%	71.5%	Low reliability (u)
Germany	+3.02%	21	-3.47%	18	+0.52%	+1.63%	-4.48%	17.4%	—
Malta	+2.99%	22	+8.54%	2	+9.91%	+9.62%	-15.21%	96.6%	—
Italy	+2.88%	23	+0.63%	10	+3.14%	-0.59%	+2.38%	58.1%	—
France	+2.76%	24	-1.71%	16	+1.37%	-4.77%	-0.03%	34.5%	—
Sweden	+2.64%	25	+3.75%	4	+1.47%	+7.42%	+2.31%	29.2%	—
Finland	+2.06%	26	-3.28%	17	-0.12%	-7.72%	-1.78%	24.1%	—
Estonia	-2.30%	27	+1.89%	6	+5.18%	+3.35%	-0.10%	58.4%	—

1. Romania
+11.02%index
June nights
-5.66% (rank 21)
H1 nights
-6.71%
Non-resident
+12.06%
Resident
-9.38%
Non-resident share
20.6%
Qualification
—
2. Cyprus
+8.48%index
June nights
-6.78% (rank 23)
H1 nights
-7.71%
Non-resident
-6.04%
Resident
-19.16%
Non-resident share
95.1%
Qualification
—
3. Bulgaria
+7.60%index
June nights
-3.63% (rank 19)
H1 nights
-1.68%
Non-resident
-5.42%
Resident
+0.30%
Non-resident share
67.3%
Qualification
—
4. Greece
+6.16%index
June nights
+1.44% (rank 9)
H1 nights
+1.40%
Non-resident
+1.72%
Resident
-0.87%
Non-resident share
89.5%
Qualification
—
5. Lithuania
+5.76%index
June nights
+12.67% (rank 1)
H1 nights
-1.19%
Non-resident
+14.50%
Resident
+11.31%
Non-resident share
43.3%
Qualification
—
6. Denmark
+5.57%index
June nights
-1.58% (rank 15)
H1 nights
+3.75%
Non-resident
+3.89%
Resident
-5.49%
Non-resident share
44.0%
Qualification
—
7. Hungary
+5.44%index
June nights
+1.93% (rank 5)
H1 nights
+3.70%
Non-resident
+5.30%
Resident
-0.94%
Non-resident share
47.4%
Qualification
—
8. Spain
+5.14%index
June nights
-1.42% (rank 14)
H1 nights
+1.55%
Non-resident
-2.61%
Resident
+0.70%
Non-resident share
63.3%
Qualification
—
9. Latvia
+4.89%index
June nights
+1.84% (rank 7)
H1 nights
-1.09%
Non-resident
+0.76%
Resident
+3.49%
Non-resident share
60.0%
Qualification
—
10. Croatia
+4.76%index
June nights
-6.08% (rank 22)
H1 nights
+0.46%
Non-resident
-7.52%
Resident
+11.62%
Non-resident share
91.1%
Qualification
—
11. Czechia
+4.58%index
June nights
-0.83% (rank 13)
H1 nights
+2.51%
Non-resident
-1.92%
Resident
0.00%
Non-resident share
42.5%
Qualification
—
12. Slovakia
+4.57%index
June nights
0.00% (rank 12)
H1 nights
+5.86%
Non-resident
0.00%
Resident
0.00%
Non-resident share
34.8%
Qualification
—
13. Portugal
+4.43%index
June nights
+0.21% (rank 11)
H1 nights
+0.92%
Non-resident
-1.31%
Resident
+3.47%
Non-resident share
67.1%
Qualification
—
14. Netherlands
+4.40%index
June nights
-13.06% (rank 27)
H1 nights
-1.50%
Non-resident
-12.04%
Resident
-13.79%
Non-resident share
42.0%
Qualification
—
15. Poland
+4.33%index
June nights
+3.98% (rank 3)
H1 nights
+5.18%
Non-resident
+1.07%
Resident
+4.61%
Non-resident share
17.4%
Qualification
—
16. Slovenia
+3.92%index
June nights
+1.54% (rank 8)
H1 nights
+5.66%
Non-resident
+1.53%
Resident
+1.57%
Non-resident share
77.3%
Qualification
—
17. Austria
+3.73%index
June nights
-4.12% (rank 20)
H1 nights
+1.83%
Non-resident
-5.41%
Resident
-1.37%
Non-resident share
67.2%
Qualification
—
18. Luxembourg
+3.72%index
June nights
-6.93% (rank 24)
H1 nights
-1.18%
Non-resident
-5.58%
Resident
-16.21%
Non-resident share
88.6%
Qualification
—
19. Belgium
+3.60%index
June nights
-9.63% (rank 25)
H1 nights
-1.35%
Non-resident
-11.46%
Resident
-7.54%
Non-resident share
52.2%
Qualification
Low reliability (u)
20. Ireland
+3.56%index
June nights
-9.87% (rank 26)
H1 nights
+14.59%
Non-resident
+5.26%
Resident
-33.72%
Non-resident share
71.5%
Qualification
Low reliability (u)
21. Germany
+3.02%index
June nights
-3.47% (rank 18)
H1 nights
+0.52%
Non-resident
+1.63%
Resident
-4.48%
Non-resident share
17.4%
Qualification
—
22. Malta
+2.99%index
June nights
+8.54% (rank 2)
H1 nights
+9.91%
Non-resident
+9.62%
Resident
-15.21%
Non-resident share
96.6%
Qualification
—
23. Italy
+2.88%index
June nights
+0.63% (rank 10)
H1 nights
+3.14%
Non-resident
-0.59%
Resident
+2.38%
Non-resident share
58.1%
Qualification
—
24. France
+2.76%index
June nights
-1.71% (rank 16)
H1 nights
+1.37%
Non-resident
-4.77%
Resident
-0.03%
Non-resident share
34.5%
Qualification
—
25. Sweden
+2.64%index
June nights
+3.75% (rank 4)
H1 nights
+1.47%
Non-resident
+7.42%
Resident
+2.31%
Non-resident share
29.2%
Qualification
—
26. Finland
+2.06%index
June nights
-3.28% (rank 17)
H1 nights
-0.12%
Non-resident
-7.72%
Resident
-1.78%
Non-resident share
24.1%
Qualification
—
27. Estonia
-2.30%index
June nights
+1.89% (rank 6)
H1 nights
+5.18%
Non-resident
+3.35%
Resident
-0.10%
Non-resident share
58.4%
Qualification
—

Key data for journalists

Romania and Cyprus recorded the EU27's two largest June 2026 changes in the Eurostat restaurants and accommodation services price index, at +11.02% and +8.48% year on year, alongside accommodation nights of -5.66% and -6.78%.
Destination Finder analysis of Eurostat data
Across the EU27 in June 2026, 11 countries recorded more accommodation nights than a year earlier, 15 recorded fewer and one recorded no change.
Destination Finder analysis of Eurostat data
The cross-country association between June index change and nights growth is weak (Pearson r -0.15), and tourism growth appears among countries with both above-median and below-median index changes.
Destination Finder analysis of Eurostat data
Romania recorded +12.06% non-resident nights alongside -9.38% resident nights in June 2026; Malta recorded +9.62% and -15.21%.
Destination Finder analysis of Eurostat data
Over January–June 2026, Cyprus recorded -7.71% accommodation nights, the largest half-year decline in the EU27.
Destination Finder analysis of Eurostat data

Please attribute figures to “Destination Finder analysis of Eurostat data”. See the site methodology, the European Tourism Tracker and the European Travel Price Tracker for the underlying series.

Methodology and limitations

Price measure. Eurostat prc_hicp_minr, coicop18=CP11, unit=I15. Restaurants and accommodation services. 100 × [ln(index June 2026) − ln(index June 2025)], the existing tracker log-change convention. Not the ordinary percentage rate, euro prices, or a price-level ranking.

Tourism measure. Eurostat tour_occ_nim; freq=M, unit=NR, nace_r2=I551-I553, c_resid=TOTAL. 100 × (June 2026 nights / June 2025 nights − 1). Published total, never reconstructed.

Accommodation scope. Hotels and similar accommodation, holiday and other short-stay accommodation, camping grounds, recreational vehicle parks and trailer parks, within the dataset coverage. Nights count overnight stays, not unique people, all travel activity or restaurant demand.

Residence split. c_resid=FOR/DOM is residence, not nationality. Each split YoY uses its own prior-June denominator. Non-resident share = June 2026 FOR / June 2026 TOTAL × 100; share inherits flags from both inputs.

Half-year figure. 100 × (sum Jan–Jun 2026 nights / sum Jan–Jun 2025 nights − 1), with six observed months required in each year. Not the average monthly tourism growth rate.

Geography and medians. EU27, equal country weights for medians, ranks and correlations. These medians are not official EU aggregate growth rates.

Ranking. Separate descending competition ranks, 1 = highest change, 27 = lowest; ties get 1,1,3 ranks using unrounded values. No composite score. Different ranks across the two metrics are not changes in ranks over time.

Boundary handling. Strict CP11 >/< EU27 median and tourism >/< 0. Exact median and exact-zero observations are reported separately so neither is falsely called above/below or growth/decline. No epsilon or display rounding used for classification.

Eurostat flags. Raw flags retained separately for CP11, total, non-resident and resident series. June window June 2025–June 2026 inclusive; H1 window Jan 2025–June 2026 inclusive, matching project flag propagation. Observation inputs are also retained. Breaks after the base month fail the run. u=low reliability, e=estimated, b=break; unknown flags retained verbatim. In this reference month, Belgium and Ireland carry low-reliability tourism flags, so neither is used as a headline case.

Association. Pearson and Spearman are descriptive equal-country cross-sectional summaries, not causal estimates or evidence of an individual traveller response. No significance test, elasticity, composite score or control-adjusted effect is claimed.

Limitations. This is a single-month cross-section of 27 countries. It compares an index of price change with counts of accommodation nights: the two are different statistics on different bases, and neither measures traveller spending, occupancy, unique visitors or the total travel market. Country figures reflect national reporting practices and coverage. Nothing here identifies a cause; the article describes measures that were recorded at the same time.

Sources. Eurostat prc_hicp_minr (retrieved 2026-09-05) and tour_occ_nim (retrieved 2026-09-09). Analysis dated 2026-09-10. This article is fixed to its reference month and is not updated as new data is published.